HIV infections in sub - Saharan Africa spread faster in the lead up to violent battle , a new survey report card . astonishingly , however , rates of transmission fall when vehemence weaken out . The unexpected relationship may teach us something about two of the modern populace ’s most frequent orca , but as yet we do n’t recognise what .
The chart below argue the pace of HIV over a 22 year period in Nigeria , including the period from 2000 to 2004 when religious violence broke out between Muslims and Christians before four years of ataraxis and renewed conflict .
bit of infections per 1,000 people per yr in Nigeria over conflict stages . Credit : Brady Bennett .
Alone this might be considered a local oddity , the form of thing that could be featured on thespurious correlationswebsite . However , Nigeria is just one of the 36 sub - Saharan countries Brown University studentBrady Bennettstudied for a paper inPLOS ONE .
“ Compared to times of peace , the HIV incidence pace increased by 2.1 per 1000 infection per year in the five years prior to battle , ” Bennett and his co - authors reported . However , once fighting break out , there was an ordinary decrease of 0.7 raw infections per 1000 people per yr in area where between 25 and 1000 people were killed through enceinte - scale vehemence . When battle death outstrip one thousand the contagion rate fell further still , by 1.5 infections per 1000 people per year .
Sub - Saharan Africa has been the site of most of the 40 million death from AIDS over the last 30 years . Twenty - two countries suffer conflict at dissimilar time during this period , so the authors controlled for the continental peak in infection in 1996 and local factor such as economic evolution and refugee movement from surrounding countries .
Previous studies , using more circumscribed datum , have produced at odds results as to whether conflict hasincreasedordecreasedHIV infection rates , with the increases in sexual fierceness and disruptions to aesculapian programs counterbalanced by interruption of travelling networks that can spread the virus , and possibly the arrival of humanitarian aid .
Bennett receipt the step-down in recorded transmission rates during war time may be part an artifact of failure in detection and reportage . The paper noted , “ Conclusions drawn from nations long at war , such as Democratic Republic of the Congo , must be taken with caution . ”
However , the rise beforehand , also respect in Burundi , Eritrea and Uganda is more unexpected , and harder to explain . " It implies that there is something going on in societal , political , and health upkeep environs in those years that are conducive to HIV cattle farm , " Bennett allege in astatement .
excuse the connection could help public wellness officials understand atmospheric condition that facilitate HIV ’s spread . The generator suggest future study should look at data “ at the regional or community layer ” rather than using nation - wide infection rates . They also suggest investigating conduct change , such as addition in sexual violence , that may be connect with the physical body up to battle as well as the warfare themselves .
“ We need to better read the precipitating factor that push back conflict precisely because we ’ve key out that as a flow of particular vulnerability where HIV incidence is likely to be increased,”saidsenior writer DrMark Lurie .
